DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281613
SWODY1
SPC AC 281610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN APR 28 2013

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

RELATIVELY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THIS
MORNING. SEVERAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A LOW RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS TODAY...BUT NO ORGANIZED AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF
TN/MS/AL/LA. SOME POCKETS OF SUNSHINE AND ASSOCIATED HEATING WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE STORMS OVER THIS REGION...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
FOCUSED EVENT IS LIKELY.

...UPPER OH VALLEY...
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OH VALLEY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHERN OH INTO EASTERN KY. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN
THE MOST INTENSE CORES.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
A MATURE/DECAYING MCS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
BRO AREA. A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THESE
STORMS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL UNTIL THEY MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...STRONG HEATING WILL
OCCUR ALLOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN MEXICO. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD CROSS THE BORDER INTO
TX THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. IF THIS OCCURS...HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

...WEST TX...
SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE RISK OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS FROM CDS-MAF.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THIS REGION MAY RISE INTO THE MID 50S HELPING
TO WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION. STORMS THAT FORM WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED...BUT A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.

...MN/IA/NEB...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT/ID DIGGING
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIX INTO THE LOWER 50S.
IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN NEB. THE
STRONGEST CORES COULD PRODUCE HAIL.

..HART/GARNER.. 04/28/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.