DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291624
SWODY1
SPC AC 291622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT MON APR 29 2013

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA...

...IA...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NEB. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AND HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
COLD FRONT OVER IA THIS EVENING. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING
MORE CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF INITIATION OVER SOUTHWEST
IA AROUND DUSK...WITH STORMS BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...KS/MO/NEB...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS EVENING. FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE
STORMS FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE MO RIVER THIS EVENING. ALSO...
SEVERAL MODELS APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM OVER-FORECASTED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT. NAM SOLUTIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN MO. IT IS
BELIEVED THAT THOSE VALUES ARE 5-10 DEGREES TOO WARM. THE LESSENED
MOISTURE COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE CAP STRENGTH...RAISE LCL
HEIGHTS...AND DECREASE INITIATION POTENTIAL. FOR THESE
REASONS...HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS
CNK. IN THE EVENT THAT STORMS CAN FORM...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE A CONCERN.

...DEEP SOUTH TX...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70F. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEAR DRT WHICH MAY AFFECT THE REGION AROUND PEAK HEATING. IF THIS
OCCURS...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD
PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.

...FL...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

..HART/GARNER.. 04/29/2013

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