DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 010424
SWODY2
SPC AC 010423

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND
SWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BUT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE PLAINS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY ADVANCES EWD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND
ROUGHLY FROM SWRN TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURNING NWWD ACROSS TX AND LA. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES...AND WILL GRADUALLY BRING COOLING ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RESULT ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH
SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL/WRN TX.

...WRN AND CNTRL TX...
THE NAM HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/EURO IN HOLDING
UP THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN/WRN TX...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL THE MOST
AGGRESSIVELY FAR S SOLUTION WITH THE FRONT CLEARING MIDLAND TX BY
20Z. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE...HAVE ADDED A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA
FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN TX.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING MAINLY N OF THE COLD FRONT FROM LBB
TO SPS TUE MORNING...SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION WITH A SLY LOW
LEVEL JET. MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. TO THE
S...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE NWWD ACROSS TX WITH 60S
F DEWPOINTS INTO CNTRL TX BY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
HEATING WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM SJT WWD WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP SUPPORTING DEEP VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. STORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...FAVORING THE HEATED
AREAS. WINDS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...CLUSTERS OF
STORMS OR AN MCS MAY FORM AND PROPAGATE SWD WITH A WIND AND HAIL
THREAT. A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT.

...SERN TX/SRN LA OVERNIGHT...
A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUE NIGHT WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW
INCREASING TO 50 KT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN A MARKED INCREASE
IN CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE WATER. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE LAND...SOME STRONGER STORMS COULD APPROACH THE LA
COAST BY 12Z WED.

..JEWELL.. 04/01/2013

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