DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150725
SWODY3
SPC AC 150724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
NWRN TX INTO CNTRL IL...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY...

...SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT AMONG THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE DIFFERENCES REGARDING
THE SYNOPTIC POSITIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS...AND THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE AT 18/00Z FROM
SERN NEB ACROSS NWRN KS INTO SERN CO. LATEST THINKING IS THE NAM
MAY BE MORE ACCURATE DEPICTING AN EARLY FRONTAL SURGE THAT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY1-2 TIME FRAME BEFORE
SLOWLY RETREATING INTO SERN KS/NWRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS SCENARIO THE GREATEST BUOYANCY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE BODY OF OK
WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE...WHILE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXTEND DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD 50KT+ LLJ WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS OK/KS.
SCATTERED ELEVATED STRONG STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS KS INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NWRN MO. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN KS/NWRN OK WHICH WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN
THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG HEATING WILL SHARPEN A DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER...SSWWD INTO WEST TX. LARGE SCALE
PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FROM OK NEWD INTO MO. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SRN MOST STALLED BOUNDARY WILL POSE THE
GREATEST RISK OF MAINTAINING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THAT WILL
FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS A SECONDARY STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL ENCOURAGE
A FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
PROPAGATE SEWD. BY EARLY THURSDAY AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED FROM NRN IL...SWWD ACROSS MO INTO NWRN TX.

..DARROW.. 04/15/2013

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