DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020632
SWODY3
SPC AC 020630

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2013

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES ON THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE N CNTRL
GULF MEXICO BY 00Z. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SRN
AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF. RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
AREA-WIDE AS MOISTURE RETURNS NWD ATOP A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS
INITIALLY. WITH TIME...MORE ROBUST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

...SRN AL/GA INTO NRN FL...
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL
RUNS...MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF OR NAM. THE SLOWER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED.

STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THUR
MORNING...AND SOME MAY THREATEN COASTAL LA/MS/AL INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ONCE THE HIGHER THETA-E
SURFACE AIR MAKES IT ONSHORE...WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION. WIND PROFILES WILL BE
STRENGTHENING...AND WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS. TIMING OF THE FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES...THUS WILL ONLY INTRODUCE LOW
SEVERE PROBS.

..JEWELL.. 04/02/2013

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