DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 200857
SWOD48
SPC AC 200856

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT SAT APR 20 2013

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WITH INCREASINGLY
SPLIT UPPER FLOW THROUGH DAYS 5-6.

ON DAY 4/TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ADVANCE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
ARKLATEX/MUCH OF TX AS THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES. WHILE MOISTURE WILL STEADILY RETURN/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN
WHETHER CONSEQUENTIAL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL MATERIALIZE IN
TANDEM WITH THE STRONGER FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY/MIDWEST. AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE
AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS EAST/SOUTHEAST TX NEAR THE COLD FRONT. WHILE AT
LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS SEEM PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH/MIDDLE MS RIVER VICINITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...A PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD /30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT/
SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

FOR DAY 5/WEDNESDAY...TSTMS/SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE GULF COAST REGION ALONG THE COLD FRONT...BUT AN APPRECIABLE
SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LOW ON DAY 6/THURSDAY...EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD RETURN TO
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS...INCLUDING SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MS
VALLEY...BY AROUND DAYS 7/8 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

..GUYER.. 04/20/2013

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