Monday, April 8, 2013

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 080847
SWOD48
SPC AC 080846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT MON APR 08 2013

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SLIGHT-RISK EQUIVALENT SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST INTO D4 AND
PERHAPS EARLY D5 MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ALONG WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN EWD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT RENDER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES BELOW 30 PERCENT ATTM.

ALTHOUGH CONSISTENCY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT WITH THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH OFF THE S ATLANTIC COAST BY D5...THE
GFS/GEFS MEAN REMAIN FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN AND
CMC. THIS TIMING ALONG WITH HOW EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG
THE FRONT EVOLVES DURING THE D3 PERIOD WILL INFLUENCE THE EXTENT OF
SEVERE COVERAGE ON THU-FRI. DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF 60S SURFACE
DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GEFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING WEAKER BUOYANCY RELATIVE TO FARTHER W IN D2/D3.
STILL...THERE IS CONCERN THAT WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS REMAINING
QUITE STRONG...RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD.

..GRAMS.. 04/08/2013

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