MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0367

ACUS11 KWNS 020453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020452
TXZ000-020545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT MON APR 01 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL INTO PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL AND CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 020452Z - 020545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY TEND TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA INDICATE THE
INTENSIFICATION OF A LONG-LIVED TSTM CLUSTER OVER STEPHENS AND
EASTLAND COUNTIES WITH UPSTREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT NOTED ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD POOL AS FAR WEST AS FISHER AND NOLAN COUNTIES. 04Z
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE STEPHENS/EASTLAND STORM COMPLEX IS
SITUATED AT THE NEXUS OF A W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS EWD
THROUGH THE METROPLEX...AND A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS SEWD TO N OF
ACT. PREFERRED STORM PROPAGATION APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT.

LOCAL VAD DATA SHOW THAT A SLY NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM IS
IN IT/S FORMATIVE STAGES WITH 30-35 KT FLOW NOW OBSERVED IN THE
1.0-1.5 KM AGL LEVEL AT THE SAN ANGELO...FORT WORTH...AND THE CNTRL
TX RADAR SITES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
FURTHER...ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO REGION OF
DEVELOPING/RE-INTENSIFYING STORMS. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH
A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF. 00Z SOUNDINGS/...
RESULTING IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SHOULD STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE...A WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

..MEAD.. 04/02/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 31860159 32640118 32869974 32939813 32789746 31739683
31159712 30879742 31039908 31530084 31860159

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