ACUS11 KWNS 021859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021859
TXZ000-022000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021859Z - 022000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF DMGG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A WW.
DISCUSSION...POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN BREAKS OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 80 F IN SOME
LOCATIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NOTED INVOF LOCALIZED
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE OVER LLANO COUNTY. THIS IS OCCURRING S OF
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR SJT-BWD-30 S
FTW AS OF 19Z. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER LIMITING SFC
HEATING...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS /E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS LOWER
60S/ ALONG WITH INCREASING ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER IMPULSE
APPROACHING THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SEMI-ORGANIZED
FRONTAL CLUSTER OR LINE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL TX. A DMGG WIND
THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COULD BE LIMITED BY
ANAFRONTAL CHARACTER OF THE REGIME. ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL AND LOCALIZED DMGG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...COULD
ACCOMPANY PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE STORMS THAT OCCUR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING COVERAGE AND
INTENSIFICATION WHICH MAY REQUIRE A WW.
..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 04/02/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29629972 29979983 31279975 31569924 31769870 31809837
32049738 31819655 31409642 30399659 29889706 29569744
29499814 29629972
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