ACUS11 KWNS 050411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050411
FLZ000-050545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 PM CDT THU APR 04 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FLORIDA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 050411Z - 050545Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH FL TONIGHT AS A LINE APPROACHES THE FL WEST COAST OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. WW ISSUANCE COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF THE LINE CAN BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ABOUT 75
STATUTE MILES SSW OF FT MEYERS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND
INTO THE EVERGLADES OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE STORMS OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA IS VERY MOIST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F WITH RESULTANT MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED IN THE
500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHERE
850 MB WIND SPEED ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. THIS IS
EVIDENCED BY THE WSR-88D VWP AT MIAMI WHICH ALSO SHOWS ABOUT 40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
HELP ORGANIZE THE LINE. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES INLAND AFTER 05Z TO 06Z
TIMEFRAME.
..BROYLES/HART.. 04/05/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 26188085 25818176 25358179 24518167 24608098 25258027
25898005 26188085
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