MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0423

ACUS11 KWNS 100759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100758
MIZ000-101200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 100758Z - 101200Z

SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL RESULT IN LOCAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05-0.1 INCH/HR. A
MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED INITIALLY...WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BEFORE THE PRECIP WINDS
DOWN LATER THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING INTO NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN AS OF 0730Z...AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT
MAX MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE WET BULB TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...ADDITIONAL DIURNAL COOLING AND WEAK SFC COLD ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AS THE PRECIP
MOVES IN. MEANWHILE...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WARM LAYER
BETWEEN 850-700 MB WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH TIME DUE TO WET-BULB
EFFECTS. A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
INITIALLY...WITH RATES OF 0.05-0.1 INCH/HR POSSIBLE IN ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO PERSIST. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
MAY OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLUMN COOLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NRN PARTS OF THE MCD AREA...BEFORE THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN BY 12-13Z.

..DEAN.. 04/10/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...

LAT...LON 44378622 44778633 45208615 45538586 45698528 45698482
45658426 45588372 45458329 45008297 44688301 44368332
44188369 44258432 44328514 44398548 44388578 44378622

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