MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0457

ACUS11 KWNS 120801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120800
NCZ000-SCZ000-120930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC...SRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...

VALID 120800Z - 120930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 102 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS ACROSS ERN SC AND SRN NC. WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF TORNADO
WATCH 102.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
ACROSS ERN SC JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE LINE IN SPITE OF
WEAK INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT WILMINGTON NC
SHOWS ABOUT 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 40 KT OF SLY FLOW AT 1 KM. THE
STRONG FLOW MAY ENABLE THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS OF THE LINE TO HAVE
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F AND SPEED SHEAR
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO ENABLE ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE
LINE TO HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

..BROYLES/HART.. 04/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 34478009 34777985 34997935 34927843 34737766 34457749
34087772 33667850 33197909 32667974 32758016 33608019
34478009

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