MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0458

ACUS11 KWNS 120905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120905 COR
VAZ000-NCZ000-121030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0405 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 120905Z - 121030Z

CORRECTED TYPO

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL VA OVER THE NEXT
1 TO 2 HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO COULD OCCUR AS A SQUALL-LINE
MOVES INTO SCNTRL VA. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
VA.

DISCUSSION...A DEVELOPING QLCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING TO THE EAST OF
ROANOKE VA LOCATED VERY NEAR TO THE AXIS OF ANALYZED 45 TO 55 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. RADAR SHOWS SMALL EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES OVER
PITTSYLVANIA...BEDFORD AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES WITH REPORTS OF
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE DURING THE PAST HOUR. SFC DEWPOINTS
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F BUT FURTHER TO
THE EAST...MID 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE PRESENT. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALLOW THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC MAY
ENABLE TO THE LINE TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. STRONG SPEED SHEAR IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT.

..BROYLES/HART.. 04/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 38197839 37727913 37097962 36777957 36597932 36527883
36497819 36577757 37007684 37627676 38067734 38197839

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