ACUS11 KWNS 180903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180902
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-181000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...MO...WRN IL...ERN OK...NW AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119...120...
VALID 180902Z - 181000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
119...120...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS ECNTRL
MO AND ERN OK FOR 1 TO 2 MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED. A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED TO
THE EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCHES IF THE STRONGER SEGMENTS OF THE LINE
CAN REMAIN ORGANIZED.
DISCUSSION...A SQUALL-LINE CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM WRN IL EXTENDING
SWWD ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO ERN OK...IS LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF
A 60 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN
AHEAD OF THE LINE WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 500
J/KG. IN SPITE OF THIS...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW STRONG EFFECTIVE
SHEAR NEAR 50 KT WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM ABOVE THE GROUND.
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE
FASTER MOVING AND MORE ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENTS. AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED.
..BROYLES/HART.. 04/18/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 39449107 37589282 36359411 35359528 34659587 34179571
34049486 34189397 35419242 38209010 39178983 39449025
39449107
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