MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0516

ACUS11 KWNS 180927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180926
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-181100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0426 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH AND CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121...

VALID 180926Z - 181100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN PART
OF WW 121 FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY MARGINAL.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX SWWD INTO CNTRL TX...IS LOCATED ALONG
THE NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH 60 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE FORTH WORTH WSR-88D VWP SHOULD
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD. WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS IS LIKELY BEING
INHIBITED BY A CAPPING INVERSION THAT IS PRESENT EWD ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. FOR THIS REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL
EARLY THIS MORNING.

..BROYLES/HART.. 04/18/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 39449107 37589282 36359411 35359528 34659587 34179571
34049486 34189397 35419242 38209010 39178983 39449025
39449107

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