ACUS11 KWNS 181036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181036
ILZ000-MOZ000-181130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 AM CDT THU APR 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...WRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181036Z - 181130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
MO AND WRN IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE...HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. WW
ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION...A SQUALL-LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ON THE WRN EDGE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM WRN IL EXTENDING SWWD TO NW AR. DISCRETE
CELLS ARE INITIATING AHEAD OF THE LINE IN SE MO AND THE STORM IN
WASHINGTON COUNTY MO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT A POCKET OF STRONGER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED
ACROSS SE MO WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT ST LOUIS SHOWS IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WITH LONG LOOPED HODOGRAPHS. THIS ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WITH LOW-LCL HEIGHTS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES/HART.. 04/18/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
LAT...LON 38699054 38029102 37779084 37689039 38078953 38978892
39378977 38699054
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