MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0577

ACUS11 KWNS 291639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291638
FLZ000-291815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT MON APR 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291638Z - 291815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO JUSTIFY A WW.

DISCUSSION...MIDDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 80S OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA...WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING
IN THE LOW 60S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COAST. THE WARM/MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLY
COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
IN ADDITION...THE WARMING SURFACE AIRMASS IS AIDING IN BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND DEEPENING CUMULUS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES BELOW 30 KT. THUS...DISORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.

..GARNER/HART.. 04/29/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 27838212 29748156 26717999 25458034 25588102 26528155
27838212

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