MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0584

ACUS11 KWNS 302052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302051
TXZ000-302215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302051Z - 302215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
W-CNTRL TX DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 90S OVER W-CNTRL TX...WHICH IS
YIELDING STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THOUGH DEWPOINTS
HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE 40S...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE AND RAP
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MLCAPE VALUES STILL RESIDE FROM 500-1000
J/KG DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS A
RESULT...A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPANDING EWD ACROSS W-CNTRL
TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES...DRY MICROBURSTS PRODUCING ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..GARNER/HART.. 04/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 33230243 34390209 34700149 34430076 33660020 32730032
32210153 32340259 33230243

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