MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0585

ACUS11 KWNS 302102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302101
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-302300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO FAR NORTHWEST MO
AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302101Z - 302300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP/INCREASE BY
EARLY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB INTO
EXTREME NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA. A WATCH DOES
NOT APPEAR IMMINENT...ALTHOUGH ONE MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION /ESPECIALLY SLIGHT RISK AREA/ THIS EVENING.
SEVERE HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

DISCUSSION...FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION AT MID-AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
NEB INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL IA. REGION APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY MODEST/NEBULOUS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AT THIS TIME...WITH A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PREVALENT
ATOP A MODESTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /50S TO NEAR 60F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/ WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN MODERATE MASS CONVERGENCE
AND STRONG HEATING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT /MIDDLE 80S F IN SOME
AREAS/...SOME POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED NEAR-SURFACE
BASED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS SUCH AS FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEB. BUT GIVEN THE
NATURE OF WARM SECTOR CAPPING AND FORCING IN RELATION TO THE FRONT
/FOCUSED NORTH/...OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD WILL BE FOR TSTMS TO
NOCTURNALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING IMMEDIATELY NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE. SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.

..GUYER/HART.. 04/30/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 39489856 40019780 41889416 41389343 40949392 39379696
39069839 39489856

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