DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070059
SWODY1
SPC AC 070057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2013

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN KY/FAR NERN TN/SWRN VA/NWRN AND CENTRAL NC...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...OH VALLEY...THE MID SOUTH REGION AND INTO THE SERN STATES
-- SURROUNDING AN UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED INVOF THE TN/AL STATE LINE.
THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE ONGOING WITHIN A ZONE FROM CENTRAL/NRN NC
WNWWD INTO ERN KY -- WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY REMAINS JUXTAPOSED
WITH MODERATE /30 TO 40 KT/ NELY/ELY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW.

WHILE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY STILL OCCUR WITH ONE OR TWO
OF THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

...PARTS OF ERN NM INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX...
ISOLATED STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF
THE TX/NM BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE A DRY BUT WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS RESULTED IN MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH BACKGROUND SHEAR
PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...SOME THREAT FOR
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE STORMS
WEAKEN IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL COOLING.

...ELSEWHERE...
A FEW STRONGER CELLS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SWRN OREGON/NRN CA. MODEST INSTABILITY
INDICATED ACROSS THE AREA IS SUPPORTING THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT
WITH FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT LIMITING ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL...EXPECT
ONLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

..GOSS.. 05/07/2013

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