Sunday, May 5, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051957
SWODY1
SPC AC 051955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2013

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

..BROYLES.. 05/05/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT SUN MAY 05 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH MON...WITH THE
MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS CONTINUING ACROSS CNTRL CANADA AND DUAL BLOCKS
OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER SOUTH...CSTL CA UPR LOW
SHOULD SETTLE FARTHER SW INTO THE E PACIFIC...WHILE NRN MS LOW EDGES
E TO NRN GA. COOL/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LWR LVLS...EXCEPT
ALONG THE S ATLANTIC CST...WHERE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF NW-SE CONFLUENCE ZONE NOW OVER THE
SAVANNAH RVR VLY SWD INTO THE ATLANTIC.

...SRN SC THIS AFTN/EVE...
NW-SE CONFLUENCE ZONE NOW ENTERING FAR WRN SC SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY
NE ACROSS SRN AND ERN SC LATER TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOWLY-MOVING UPR
LOW. BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST ALONG
THE CONFLUENCE ZONE AS LOW-LVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO ITS E. AREA VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE LOW-LVL VEERING TO
SUPPORT LOW-LVL UPDRAFT ROTATION...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE CONVECTION
INTERSECTS WSW-ENE WARM FRONT OVER THE SC CSTL PLN.

THE WIND FIELD AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER SC LIKELY
WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TODAY. BUT INCREASE IN LOW-LVL THETA-E DUE
TO COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN AND MODEST SFC HEATING
MAY SUFFICIENTLY BOOST LOW-LVL BUOYANCY TO YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK
TSTMS WITH LOW-LVL ROTATION AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. ANY SUCH
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER THIS EVE AS NWD ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT
IS OUTPACED BY NE MOVEMENT OF CONFLUENCE ZONE.

...ERN AL/WRN GA/SE TN THIS AFTN/EVE...
VORT LOBE PIVOTING AROUND SE QUADRANT OF MS UPR LOW PER SATELLITE
AND VWP DATA WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF AL AND NW GA
LATER TODAY/TNGT. AS ASSOCIATED MID-LVL COOLING /500 MB TEMPS BLO
MINUS 20C/ AND ASCENT OVERSPREAD NARROW DRY SLOT OVER ERN AL/WRN
GA...SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG SFC WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT NOW
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN CNTRL AL. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 40S F IN ZONE OF STRONGEST SFC HEATING OVER
ERN AL/WRN GA...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND MULTICELL STORM MODE SHOULD...HOWEVER...MINIMIZE ANY
RISK FOR SVR HAIL.

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