DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101731
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NC/VA/COASTAL
MD...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT/INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER
NORTH AMERICA THROUGH SATURDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BECOME MORE REMOVED /SOUTHWARD/ FROM THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT...WHILE BROAD/STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. AN
INITIAL/PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT/ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE OTHERWISE MOVING MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES/SOUTH TX/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS/SOME
TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING...LIKELY NEAR/JUST
EAST OF THE SPINE OF APPALACHIANS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
THIS PRECIPITATION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER MAY TEMPER THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...BUT
ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. COINCIDENT WITH LOWER/SOME
MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN VA/COASTAL MD INTO NC...WHERE MLCAPE COULD REACH 750-1250
J/KG BY AFTERNOON.

MID-HIGH LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL LIKELY BE STRENGTHENING
DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN PHASING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAM JETS AND AMPLIFYING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE OF DEEP LAYER/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF WELL-ORGANIZED LINEAR
BANDS/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. DIURNALLY STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE
OF RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -10C AT 500 MB/
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MICROBURST/SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...GULF COAST REGION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION INLAND IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN
PERSISTENT DAY 1 CONVECTION/LINGERING CLOUD COVER INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A MODERATE BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION...AND SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT IN
THE FORM OF MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND GIVEN AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

...SOUTH TX...
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
MEXICO/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH
SOME AIRMASS DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTH TX...ALTHOUGH 60S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THE MAIN
POSSIBILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION/ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE TIED
TO LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND
PROPAGATION OF TSTMS TOWARD/ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. EVEN
SO...CLOUDINESS AND/OR A BIT OF DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
TEND TO TEMPER THE OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
DAY...BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND MAY EXIST PROVIDED
STORM DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE INTO FAR SOUTH TX.

..GUYER.. 05/10/2013

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