DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130845
SWOD48
SPC AC 130844

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE U.S. FOR LATE THIS WEEK /FRI. THROUGH SUN. MAY
17-19/...AS A WRN U.S. TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE PLAINS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE EJECTION OF
THIS FEATURE...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH TIME. STILL...A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR CENTRAL U.S.
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN HINTED AT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT MAY EXIST BEGINNING DAY 6 /SAT.
5-18/. WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAY 5/FRIDAY --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS VICINITY...THE SLOWER ECMWF
MAINTAINS RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS DAY 5. THUS...FOCUS THIS
FORECAST WILL BE ON DAY 6...WITH THE ZONE OF OVERLAP OF THE TWO
MODEL SOLUTIONS EXISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY. WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND SHEAR LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH SOME TORNADO RISK.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY PERSIST -- THOUGH FARTHER E
-- FOR DAY 7/SUNDAY...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCREASING AND WITH LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DAY 6
INFLUENCING DAY 7 CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...WILL REFRAIN ATTM FROM ANY
AREAL ISSUANCE BEYOND DAY 6.

..GOSS.. 05/13/2013

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