MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0610

ACUS11 KWNS 091953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091952
LAZ000-TXZ000-092045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT THU MAY 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN AND SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091952Z - 092045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ONGOING CNTRL TX MCS AS IT MOVES INTO ERN AND
SERN TX. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A CONFINED CORRIDOR OF DMGG
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORM
COMPLEX MOVING EWD AND IMPACTING THE CNTRL TX I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS
CONGLOMERATION OF STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS --PERHAPS ACCELERATING IN FORWARD MOTION-- AS
IT CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM
OVER ERN-SERN TX AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN LA.

THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AS SSWLY 40-50 KT
1-2 KM AGL FLOW MAINTAINS A FETCH OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH A STOUT EML THAT WAS SAMPLED BY THE 18Z CLL SPECIAL RAOB
FROM TEXAS A&M. A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM A LARGE HAIL/ISOLD DMGG
WIND THREAT IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO MAINLY A DMGG WIND THREAT AS
THE MCS FORWARD PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31259579 31679535 31379362 30929313 30209315 29809367
30229627 30659650 31259579

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.