ACUS11 KWNS 162012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162012
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-162145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NEB PANHANDLE...NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162012Z - 162145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL/WIND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...VERY ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN A
REGION OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS. MLCAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 300-700 J/KG...THOUGH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. MODEST MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW IS
SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...AND MARGINALLY SVR WINDS/HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY DCAPE VALUES NEARING 700-1000 J/KG WITH DEEP MIXED
LAYERS/INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. VERY LIMITED DEEP
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD KEEP ANY SVR THREAT BRIEF/ISOLATED AS
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LOW.
..COHEN/WEISS.. 05/16/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 41130502 42630469 42930377 42680242 40800253 40110374
40230476 41130502
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