MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0672

ACUS11 KWNS 172246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172245
ALZ000-MSZ000-172345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL AL AND E CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 172245Z - 172345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCTD TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN NUMBER AND STRENGTH IN THE
PAST HOUR OVER W CNTRL AL. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM A BIT LATER THIS
EVE WWD INTO E CNTRL MS. ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A
CONDITIONAL RISK OF SVR WEATHER...INCLUDING A COUPLE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE TSTMS HAVE FORMED IN THE PAST HOUR ALONG A
DEEP CONFLUENCE AXIS /PER AREA VWP AND STLT DATA/ EXTENDING WSW FROM
NW AL INTO E CNTRL MS. THIS CONFLUENCE BAND APPEARS TO MARK THE WRN
FRINGE OF A BAND OF ENHANCED SSWLY LOW-LVL FLOW /WITH SPEEDS OF
25-30 KTS/ OVER SE MS/WRN AL. OTHER TSTMS ARE FORMING ATTM ALONG THE
ERN FRINGE OF THIS BAND OF ENHANCED FLOW OVER CNTRL AL...FROM S OF
BHM TO W OF SELMA.

GIVEN RELATIVELY MOISTURE-RICH LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT AND SOME DEGREE
OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH 35-40 WNWLY MID-LVL SPEED MAX
NOW OVER ERN MS...ENVIRONMENT MAY YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/WEAK
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THIS REGION.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 05/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32848621 32268637 31958742 32228861 32768896 33258860
33548735 33298658 32848621

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