MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0792

ACUS11 KWNS 241958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241957
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-242230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241957Z - 242230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND HAZARDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY
EVENING FROM THE RATON MESA TO PERHAPS SWRN KS. A LOCALIZED TORNADO
THREAT IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE.

DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAS
MITIGATED DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE TSTMS THUS FAR. FARTHER E...THE
DRYLINE HAD MIXED INTO FAR WRN KS TO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. MAX
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE CENTERED ALONG THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES
TO THE DENVER CYCLONE AND INTO NWRN KS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEGUN
TO BACK IN RESPONSE AS SAMPLED BY AMA/GLD VWP DATA. AS THIS PROCESS
CONTINUES...A PLUME OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE NERN TX PANHANDLE TO NWRN OK WILL BE
ADVECTED TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER WHETHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUSTAINED
ALONG THE DRYLINE...OR WHETHER HIGH-BASED CONVECTION OFF THE MTNS
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES/DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE MOISTURE PLUME.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WHEN THIS OCCURS...WITH MID-LEVEL
FLOW FORECAST TO VEER WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS/STRENGTHENS.
THIS SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS 00Z/. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT...BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37720445 39130319 39890318 40160430 40540453 40840457
41400433 41550391 41610355 41560312 40780215 39550108
38250028 37230054 36820080 36650178 36400318 36190445
36320503 36940509 37720445

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