MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0805

ACUS11 KWNS 262003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262003
NEZ000-262130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262003Z - 262130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCTD SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE 20Z-00Z TIME FRAME.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN NEB THIS
AFTN AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS SRN NEB AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH-SOUTH FROM JUST W OF OGA TO E OF
CDR. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LWR-MID
60S...EXISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH. FURTHER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 DEG C/KM ALSO
EXIST IN THIS AREA. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND
LOCALLY NEAR 3500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL TSTMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT WHERE LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE
NEEDED PRIOR TO 22Z.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON 41530262 41970268 42370264 42530248 42580189 42460094
42170019 41659930 41119899 40789907 40579967 40640054
40980170 41350237 41530261 41530262

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