MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0810

ACUS11 KWNS 262347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262347
MOZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-270115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0810
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/SWRN AND S CENTRAL IA/NRN AND CENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262347Z - 270115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THIS AREA
MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO. WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEB SEWD ACROSS SWRN IA/NWRN MO INTO SRN
IL...SEPARATING A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS /TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ FROM A MUCH COOLER /MID 50S/
AIRMASS TO THE NORTH.

STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY OVER
SWRN IA WHERE OUTFLOW FROM ELEVATED STORMS OVER CENTRAL IA IS
MERGING WITH THE FRONT. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500 TO 3000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A FEW STRONGER CELLS
REMAIN LIKELY -- AIDED BY PRONOUNCED VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH
HEIGHT WITHIN THE LOWEST 3 KM. ALONG WITH HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS...AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BEFORE
STORMS CONGEAL -- AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS THIS AREA...AS IT PERTAINS TO
THE NEED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 05/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 41629597 41049348 39569088 38589044 38719242 40439665
41209697 41629597

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