ACUS11 KWNS 262355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262355
NEZ000-270200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 262355Z - 270200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 00-01Z ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CNTRL NEB. ONCE INITIATION APPEARS
IMMINENT...A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.
DISCUSSION...SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR LBF
TO OMA AS OF 23Z. INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU HAVE BEEN NOTED IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BOTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER CUSTER
COUNTY AND FARTHER N FROM CHERRY TO GARFIELD COUNTIES. RELATIVELY
GREATER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE CONCENTRATED IN S-CNTRL NEB AND
GIVEN THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS S OF THE FRONT...ONCE DEEP
CONVECTION IS SUSTAINED...RAPID GROWTH INTO SUPERCELLS IS LIKELY.
EVEN IF TSTMS DO NOT BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR-TERM...MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LLJ
INTENSIFIES.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO THREAT FOR A FEW
HOURS UNTIL LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE LONGER-DURATION HAZARDS.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 05/26/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40790081 41270124 41960108 42330025 42379956 42259854
41869734 41529689 41209663 40899676 40749726 40389848
40329979 40400044 40790081
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