DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071631
SWODY1
SPC AC 071629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 07 2013

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN RCKYS AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL/ERN U.S...DOWNSTREAM FROM
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK SEWD FROM THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS TO THE
LWR RIO GRANDE VLY...WHILE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER IMPULSE NOW OVER SRN
BC AMPLIFIES ESE INTO MT/WY EARLY SAT. IN THE EAST...TS ANDREA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NEWD FROM THE CAROLINAS...REACHING THE
MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVE AND THE CAPE COD AREA EARLY SAT
AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY EXTRATROPICAL.

OUTSIDE OF TS ANDREA...SFC FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK...WITH LEE
TROUGHING OVER THE NRN HIGH PLNS AND A SHALLOW COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO ADVANCE FARTHER S/SW ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VLY OF
TX. TSTMS THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING A FEW WHICH COULD BECOME
SVR...LIKELY WILL FOCUS IN AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW/HEATING OVER THE
RCKYS AND HIGH PLNS...OVER S TX...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANDREA.

...NC/VA/SRN DELMARVA THROUGH EARLY EVE...
MODEST SFC HEATING WILL CONTINUE IN ERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF CIRCULATION
OF ANDREA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NC CSTL PLN NEWD INTO TIDEWATER VA.
WEAKER HEATING LIKELY WILL OCCUR ALONG DEVELOPING QSTNRY FRONT
EXTENDING NE FROM CENTER OF ANDREA TO NEAR RIC/SBY.

ALTHOUGH DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT OF DEEP SHEAR LIKELY WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...HODOGRAPHS WILL BE LONG. IN ADDITION...SIZABLE LOW-LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NEAR DEVELOPING FRONT
AND IN AREAS OF STRONGEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS NE OF CIRCULATION
CENTER. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE /PW AROUND 2 INCHES/...SETUP
COULD YIELD AN INCREASING RISK FOR SMALL CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS
WITH LOW-LVL ROTATION AND A RISK FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
LOCALLY DMGG WIND THROUGH EARLY TNGT.

...SRN RCKYS/HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER SRN CO SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH
TNGT...ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND W TX.
COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY-ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW/MOISTURE
INFLOW...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF AFTN/EVE TSTMS ALONG
WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE AXIS. 20+ KT WNWLY 500 MB FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE GIVEN
STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. STORMS/SUPERCELLS COULD YIELD SVR
HAIL/WIND...ESPECIALLY AS THEY EVOLVE INTO LARGER CLUSTERS EARLY
TNGT OVER SRN NM/FAR W TX.

...S TX THIS AFTN/EVE...
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MAY SERVE TO FOCUS
SFC-BASED STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VLY OF S TX THROUGH
THIS EVE. ELEVATED STORMS MAY EXTEND AS FAR N/E AS THE SAT AREA.
WHILE COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE /PER MORNING RAOBS/ MAY YIELD A PULSE STORM OR TWO
WITH A RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL...WEAK WIND FIELD CLOSE TO SFC RIDGE
AXIS SUGGESTS THAT ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN
LIMITED.

...NRN HIGH PLNS LATE TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
ASCENT WITH AMPLIFYING UPR IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/LEE
TROUGH SHOULD CREATE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS
OVER CNTRL/ERN MT AND PARTS OF WY/THE WRN DAKOTAS LATER TODAY INTO
TNGT. WHILE MODEST MOISTURE /PW .75-1.00 INCH/ WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY...STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD NONETHELESS
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD STMS.
MID/UPR-LVL CLOUDS WILL...HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT LIMIT SFC HEATING...AND
THE STRONGEST UPR-LVL ASCENT WILL LAG FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS...AN
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED ATTM...ALTHOUGH
REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE SHOULD HEATING/ASCENT
APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME MORE JUXTAPOSED THAN NOW EXPECTED.
REGARDLESS OF ANY THE AFTN/EVE SVR THREAT...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE INTO EARLY SAT GIVEN STRENGTHENING OF UPR-LVL SUPPORT.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 06/07/2013

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