DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161732
SWODY2
SPC AC 161731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...

...HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX WITH A
LEE TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO ERN CO AND SE WY. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG
AND TO THE EAST OF THE LEE SFC TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM NERN NM NWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO
ERN WY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING...ORGANIZING AND MOVING ESEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY
EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00/TUE FOR SCOTTSBLUFF NEB AND LIMON CO
GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1500 J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH CELLS THAT
HAVE ACCESS TO REGIONALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY
EARLY EVENING AS THE STORMS ORGANIZE AND CONSOLIDATE OVER FAR ERN
CO.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NE NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...THE
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPE VALUES PEAKING AROUND 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO PRODUCE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER. AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR
AS THE CELLS MOVE SEWD INTO A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE
EARLY EVENING.

...NRN ROCKIES...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC...SELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS CNTRL
MT AND NRN WY WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL MT AND NRN WY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 0-6
KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE
THREAT WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK BENEATH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SUGGESTING ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

...GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD
ACROSS WI AND LOWER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S F WITH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
TAKING PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH 45 TO 55 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT WITH CELLS THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CORES. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.

...MID MS VALLEY...
THE SRN EXTENSION OF A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY ON MONDAY. BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...A BROAD WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST FROM THE OZARKS EXTENDING
ENEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S F. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 2500 TO 3000 J/KG IN
SOME AREAS. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE MODELS DIFFER
ON WHERE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE MAKING THE LOCATION OF THE SEVERE
THREAT UNCERTAIN.

..BROYLES.. 06/16/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.