DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041731
SWODY2
SPC AC 041729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT TUE JUN 04 2013

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
OZARKS/ARKLATEX...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES/ERN
GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER KS/OK AND N TX DURING THE
PERIOD. WEST TO EAST COMPONENT OF H7 FLOW FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A FETCH OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD --ASIDE FROM
AREAS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORM COMPLEXES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO SHOW A MCS MOVING ACROSS
OK INTO NERN TX TUESDAY MORNING AND THE AIRMASS RECOVERY LIKELY
NEEDED TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE. THE DAY 2 SEVERE THREAT WILL
APPRECIABLY HINGE UPON THE EXTENSIVENESS OF AN EXPECTED MCS/OUTFLOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND EVOLVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DIURNAL WEAKENING OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ
DURING THE MORNING WILL ACT TO LESSEN THE SEVERE THREAT /PRIMARILY
ISOLD WIND DAMAGE/ THAT MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER PARTS
OF ERN OK AND ARK. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY FOCUS FARTHER W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE WRN EXTENSION OF AGGREGATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND
NEAR AND N OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT INTERSECTION OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. TO THE N OF A WEST TX SURFACE LOW...THE UPSLOPE ELY
COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL USHER 50S DEWPOINTS WWD INTO ERN NM
AND 60S OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER W TX AND ERN
NM INDICATE THAT STRONG HEATING WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER BY PEAK HEATING /1000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE FROM W TO E/.
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /40 KT/ N OF THE BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. A LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO. EVENTUAL CONGEALING OF STORMS/OUTFLOWS
MAY LEAD TO SOME UPSCALE GROWTH BY EVENING YIELDING A SEVERE THREAT
TRANSITIONING TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS/WIND DAMAGE WITH TIME AS ACTIVITY
MOVES SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF W TX.

FARTHER E OVER ERN OK INTO ARK...A POSSIBLE REJUVENATION OF AN ISOLD
SEVERE THREAT MAY AGAIN DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY IF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CAN DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF EARLIER DAY SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
NOTION OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME EXTENDING FROM W TX EWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX WOULD AT LEAST CONDITIONALLY LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE MAINLY OF AN ISOLD
DMGG WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT.

..SOUTHEAST STATES/FL...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER
THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL GULF.
STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW /40 KT AT H85/ IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER THE ERN GULF...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE WIND FIELD INVOF
TAMPA BAY. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT/MEAGER SURFACE BASED
DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED INLAND...SUCH THAT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.

..SMITH.. 06/04/2013

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