DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 051718
SWODY2
SPC AC 051716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT WED JUN 05 2013

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NRN FL / FL
PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SWRN TX / FAR SRN NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NEWD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES E-SEWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER MS VALLEYS WITH THE TRAILING
EXTENSION OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. FARTHER SE...A LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE
E-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO INTO PARTS OF NRN FL/FL BIG BEND REGION.

...NRN-CNTRL FL/SOUTHEAST STATES...
IT APPEARS MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY UNDER-REPRESENTING THE QUALITY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE OBSERVED 12Z/05 TBW AND KEY
RAOBS BY 1-2 G/KG LOWEST 100MB MIXING RATIO...AND THIS TREND IS ALSO
NOTED IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT...MODELS ARE PROBABLY TOO
RESERVED IN SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION ON THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD.

MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY REGARDING THE MAIN BELT OF STRONGER
H85 FLOW OVERSPREADING FL ON THURSDAY. DESPITE THIS
DIFFERENCE...LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL ENLARGE WITH
TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA. COMBINED
WITH A VERY MOIST AND DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...THE WIND
PROFILE WILL SUPPORT MINI SUPERCELLS/LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES/ISOLD WIND
DAMAGE.

...SW TX/NM...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE N OF THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY DIURNAL
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON /500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE/. SUFFICIENT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW
/15-25 KT/ OVERTOP LOW LEVEL ELY/S WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES IN THE FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELLS AND SOME
SUPERCELLS...WHERE SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE GREATEST. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY WANES.

...TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/EAST TX...
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
COINCIDENT WITH THE SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE REGION SHOULD AT LEAST
BE GRAZED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND/OR MCV. POCKETS OF
STRONGER HEATING/PERHAPS MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COINCIDENT WITH MODEST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...MAY ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...OH VALLEY...
REPETITIVE DECAYED MCS/MCV TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS INTO THE
OZARKS REGION UPSTREAM OF THIS REGION DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS WILL
ACT TO LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY THROUGH BOTH CLOUD COVER
AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...POCKETS OF HEATING
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE E-SEWD
PROGRESSING FRONT. AS A RESULT...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WHERE HEATING IS MAXIMIZED AND POSE AN ISOLD WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

..SMITH.. 06/05/2013

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