DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061736
SWODY2
SPC AC 061734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT THU JUN 06 2013

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN
CAROLINAS...SOUTHEASTERN VA TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NM...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHWEST KS AND PARTS OF THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES...

...SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE A
DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS E OF THE ROCKIES WITH THE AXIS
CENTERED ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN W/NWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC NERN PACIFIC AND OVER
WA/ORE AT THIS TIME WILL REACH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...RESPECTIVELY THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...T.S ANDREA /PER NHC FORECAST AND GUIDANCE/ IS EXPECTED
TO ACCELERATE NEWD FRIDAY AND SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF DAY2 AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST.

...ERN CAROLINAS...SERN VA TO SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA...
GIVEN THE LATEST NHC GUIDANCE FOR T.S. ANDREA WITH THE EXPECTED NEWD
ACCELERATION OF THIS SYSTEM...THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDING A TORNADO
THREAT AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOME FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
STRONGER CORRIDOR OF 40-55 KT SLY 850 MB WINDS SPREADING NEWD FROM
ERN SC/NC TO SERN VA/SERN DELMARVA. A RICH ENVIRONMENT /PW
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/...AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND 0-1 SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT
AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THESE THREATS MAY LINGER OVER SERN VA AND SRN
DELMARVA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...PRIOR TO ANDREA MOVING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AROUND OR AFTER 08/00Z.

...PARTS OF SWRN-SRN AND CENTRAL NM...
MODELS SUGGEST GREATER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY FRIDAY MORNING
INTO PARTS OF SWRN-CENTRAL NM WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 10
G/KG. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
THE GREATER MOISTURE IN THIS REGION SUGGESTS CU SHOULD FORM
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WA/ORE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT
ENHANCING STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE
WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...30 KT WNWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A FORECAST FOR INVERTED V THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES.

...SWRN KS AND PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH ACTIVITY ADVANCING INTO SWRN KS TO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE AIR MASS SHOULD HAVE
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THIS EVOLUTION WILL BE AIDED BY THE
WA/ORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THIS REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION. THUS...A SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD THROUGH THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A FAR
NERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA TO SRN ALBERTA FRIDAY AND THEN AMPLIFY INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS OF ERN MT/WRN ND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/ERN MT INTO WRN ND AND/OR MOVE SEWD OUT
OF SRN SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AS
WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. RELATIVELY STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SPLITTING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
GUSTY WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 06/06/2013

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