DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091704
SWODY2
SPC AC 091702

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT SUN JUN 09 2013

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN KY AND MIDDLE/ERN
TN...

...KY/TN...

MID MS VALLEY TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST LATE DAY1 TO A
POSITION FROM ERN IL...SWD INTO WRN TN AT DAYBREAK MONDAY.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY WHICH
SHOULD ENCOURAGE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL
HEATING. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THAT REGION FROM KY INTO TN
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED BENEATH JET
CORE CHARACTERIZED BY 500 MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MINIMIZED BY DEEP WLY FLOW AT THIS LATITUDE
BUT STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY FOR ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WITHIN THE BASE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. GIVEN
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THERE WILL BE A PROPENSITY FOR STORM
ROTATION WITH LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS. A CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY
ULTIMATELY EVOLVE OVER SRN KY/MIDDLE-ERN TN BY EVENING WHICH COULD
PRODUCE HAIL/WIND.

...KS...

INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO WRN KS WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR ABOVE 100F BY
MID AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDING AT GCK SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED BY 20Z AND HIGH BASED TSTMS MAY EVOLVE.
WHILE UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THIS REGION INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD
AN E-W SFC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ORIENT ITSELF ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR. HAVE INTRODUCED 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR A
FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY WHERE
MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT LONGER-LIVED
UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR DARK WHEN THE LLJ SHOULD INCREASE INTO
THIS REGION.

...YELLOWSTONE REGION OF ID/MT/WY...

ENTRANCE REGION OF EJECTING SPEED MAX WILL INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN ID/SWRN MT/NWRN WY
MONDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT STRONG
SHEAR WILL COINCIDE WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THIS
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDING AT IPX AT 23Z DEPICTS A PROFILE
SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
PROBS FOR HAIL/WIND WITH ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 06/09/2013

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