MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0954

ACUS11 KWNS 041925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041924
TXZ000-042100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT TUE JUN 04 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 041924Z - 042100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WEST TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH WW ISSUANCE APPEARS
UNLIKELY...THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A WATCH WOULD BE IN THE NRN PART
OF THE MCD AREA.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW SOUTHEAST
OF LUBBOCK WITH A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE ERN
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE
2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF
THE BIG BEND AREA BUT SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST STORMS WILL
INITIATE FURTHER TO THE NORTH IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AS THE CAP
WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MCD AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE IN PLACE AROUND THE ABILENE AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES 0-6 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST IN AREAS BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND
ABILENE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE INSTABILITY COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 06/04/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32719917 33289940 33609982 33610050 33110096 32650109
31860145 30850243 30290258 29870198 30070094 31259966
32279926 32719917

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