MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0955

ACUS11 KWNS 042040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042040
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-042215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT TUE JUN 04 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...FAR SW KS...WRN OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 042040Z - 042215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN CO OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE MCD AREA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING NWD INTO
SE CO WHERE WINDS ARE BACKED WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. IN
RESPONSE...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F ACROSS SERN
CO WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.
IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS IN PLACE ACROSS SE CO WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CELLS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH CELLS THAT OBTAIN
ROTATION. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS CELLS MOVE EWD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE SFC-TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 30
DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.

..BROYLES/WEISS.. 06/04/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37260411 36950364 36470321 36340251 36690171 37270145
37820145 38570200 39370323 39520385 39470435 39260472
38760516 38100516 37580487 37260411

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