MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0998

ACUS11 KWNS 082016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082016
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-082145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT SAT JUN 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND NERN KS / SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082016Z - 082145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN
ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER OVER A LARGE PART OF N-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO THE MID MO
RIVER VALLEY. UPDRAFTS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED INTO A FEW STORMS
OVER ROOKS/TREGO COUNTIES KS...EMANATING FROM A FIELD OF ACCAS OVER
NWRN KS THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE WRN EDGE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW E OF
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL NEB SSWWD INTO W-CNTRL KS.

ZONE OF FAVORABLE UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SPEED MAX MOVING SSEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL GRADUALLY PROVE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. DESPITE DELAYED BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER
80S OVER N-CNTRL KS BUT HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY COOL FARTHER NE
NEAR THE GREATER OMAHA AREA. ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THE PREDOMINATE THREAT...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP/MATURE INVOF BACKED LOW
LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE NEB/IA BORDER WHERE HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE
FAVORABLE.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 06/08/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 38599915 40959707 41299573 39919544 38449660 38599915

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