MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1005

ACUS11 KWNS 091624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091623
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-091800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT SUN JUN 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN AND CENTRAL/ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091623Z - 091800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN INTO CENTRAL AND ERN
KY...WITH LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO THE 1630Z
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THAT WILL INCLUDE PARTS OF THIS REGION.

DISCUSSION...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A CORRIDOR OF LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW EXTENDING FROM WRN AL INTO MIDDLE AND ERN
TN...WITH A RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN PLACE INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA /PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5 INCH PER 12Z BNA
SOUNDING/. A CONTINUATION OF DEEP LAYER SLY WINDS INTO THE TN VALLEY
TODAY WILL SUPPORT FURTHER MOISTENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPULSE MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN...WHILE AN MCV WAS
APPARENT AND CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO NRN AL. WEAK SURFACE BASED
INHIBITION EVIDENT ON REGIONAL 12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS HAS ALREADY
BEEN ERODED BY SURFACE HEATING...WITH TSTMS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY TO THE SERN STATES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KY AND MIDDLE/ERN TN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE AND MCV WITHIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY MIDLEVEL
WINDS /40+ KT AOA 6 KM AGL PER VWP DATA FROM MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL
KY/ SUGGEST STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD FAVORING LINE SEGMENTS. WEAK MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO TEMPER THE INSTABILITY AND RESULT IN LESS
ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT COULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 06/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...
HUN...

LAT...LON 34928686 36358617 37508583 38358501 38448361 38198269
37558279 36008350 35058414 34938453 34928686

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