MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1008

ACUS11 KWNS 092203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092203
TXZ000-100000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN JUN 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 092203Z - 100000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR STORMS COULD OCCUR INTO THE
EVENING...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS S OF A DIFFUSE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL TX IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
2000-3500 J/KG PER MODIFIED 12Z DRT RAOB AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THIS INSTABILITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER
70S BENEATH AT LEAST MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF KERR COUNTY TO COMAL COUNTY.
BOUNDARY-ACCOMPANYING ASCENT IS BEING AUGMENTED BY ASCENT OVER THE
SWRN FRINGES OF AN MCV CENTERED TO THE NE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ADVANCING SWD/SSWWD INTO THE TX BRUSH
COUNTY.

MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVOLVE FROM TOWERING
CUMULUS DEVELOPING FARTHER SW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION
AND THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...AS LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INVOF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONES OVER THE FRINGES OF MULTI-LAYERED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
DECKS COMBINE WITH ASCENT ACCOMPANYING OTHER MORE DIFFUSE MCV/S.
GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...AND GIVEN
25-35 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY DFX/CRP VWP/S YIELDING MODEST
DEEP SHEAR...A FEW OF THE MORE ORGANIZED STRUCTURES COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS SVR WIND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WHEN NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION OCCURS. WITH THE OVERALL WEAK DEEP FORCING FOR
ASCENT...STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE LIMITED...PRECLUDING WW
ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 29370089 29860029 30239934 30269828 29759799 28999804
28349821 27709850 27219907 27259963 28360034 29370089

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