MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1010

ACUS11 KWNS 092231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092230
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-100030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT SUN JUN 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN TX...NRN/ERN LA...SWRN/CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 092230Z - 100030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WINDS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NRN/ERN FLANK OF A COLD
POOL ARCING FROM E-CNTRL TX INTO E-CNTRL LA TO SWRN LA IS SUBJECT TO
INFLOW WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG PER MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE APEX OF LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL
ELONGATES NEWD TOWARD NERN LA AND W-CNTRL MS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL OCCUR WITHIN A WEAK WAA REGIME ACROSS CNTRL MS...SAMPLED BY DGX
VWP DATA INDICATING A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOW
LEVELS WITH WEAK FLOW STRENGTH. WITH ONLY 20-25 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
PER DGX/SHV VWP DATA...INCIPIENT CELLS WILL LACK SUBSTANTIAL
ORGANIZATION -- WITH ENSUING CONVECTION EXHIBITING PULSE/WEAKLY
ORGANIZED MULTICELL MODES. HOWEVER...PW VALUES OF 1.60-1.75 INCHES
PER GPS DATA SUGGEST THAT WATER LOADING MAY AID IN STRONG
MICROBURSTS WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF INSTANCES OF DMGG WINDS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL. NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL YIELD A DECREASE IN STORM
INTENSITY/COVERAGE AFTER DARK.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 06/09/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31699189 31929335 31889484 31979522 32659470 32939282
32929070 32588957 31678958 30739044 30729180 31699189

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