MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1032

ACUS11 KWNS 112103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112103
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-112200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...SW NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112103Z - 112200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CELLS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL...WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SLY TO SWLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS WRN KS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S F WITH TEMPS
WELL ABOVE 100 F. AS A RESULT...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME
DRY ADIABATIC AND ARE APPROACHING 10.0 C/KM ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. THIS ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 30-40
KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE LARGE-TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 50
DEGREES F IN SOME LOCATIONS...DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL
DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE.

..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 06/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON 39420214 38890153 38050182 37500216 37160189 37050138
37200029 37619930 38449883 39479881 40289977 40540061
40450144 40200190 39420214

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