MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1042

ACUS11 KWNS 122005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122004
MTZ000-122100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN - CNTRL AND N-CNTRL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 122004Z - 122100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCTD STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON YIELDING MAINLY AN
ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT. THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A FEW SUPERCELLS YIELDING SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO...MAINLY OVER
CNTRL AND N-CNTRL MT.

DISCUSSION...19Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 1008 MB LOW
NEAR THE ID/MT BORDER IN SWRN MT AND FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
LOW MIGRATING NEWD INTO CNTRL MT BY THE MID-EVENING. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WITH BACKED ELY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL
--REFERENCE KTFX AND KBLX VWP/S-- WILL SUPPORT IN MAINTAINING A
MOIST FETCH OF LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION.

VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN SWRN MT. ALTHOUGH THE MID-UPPER LOW NEAR
VANCOUVER/WA COAST IS NEARLY STATIONARY...STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
HAS OVERSPREAD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE. THE 18Z TFX RAOB WAS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /500
J/KG MLCAPE -- 8 DEG C H7-H5 LAPSE RATE/ BUT FEATURED A STRONGLY
VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT --SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN AREAS OVER CNTRL AND N-CNTRL MT
EXHIBIT A POTENTIALLY MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILE...AND MAY SUPPORT A LOCALIZED VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO. RECENT EXPERIMENTAL CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
BLOSSOM SEVERAL SIMULATED ROTATING UPDRAFTS ACROSS CNTRL AND N-CNTRL
MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND AT LEAST LENDS CREDENCE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED POSSIBILITY.

..SMITH/CARBIN.. 06/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 48561122 48961030 48990788 48460713 45720872 45041054
45341223 46471235 48561122

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