MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1062

ACUS11 KWNS 131753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131753
VAZ000-NCZ000-131930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA AND NERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131753Z - 131930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL ENTER
PORTIONS OF SERN VA AND NERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE.
WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS GUIDANCE INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SERN VA AND ERN NC
IS BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AIDING IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2500-4000
J/KG. AREA VWP/S SHOW MAINLY DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW INCREASING TO 50 KT
AT 3 KM AGL. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR...NUMEROUS
MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THESE STORMS WILL
POSE A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AREA
WILL NEED A WW ISSUANCE DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

..GARNER/CARBIN.. 06/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 36747568 35457688 34947897 35897968 37697824 37937661
37667543 36747568

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