MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1079

ACUS11 KWNS 141939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141938
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-142145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST KS/SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB AND EASTERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141938Z - 142145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOR
DOWNBURSTS/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KS/SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB/EAST-CENTRAL CO. A SEVERE
TSTM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...MOST
PROBABLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB/PERHAPS NORTHWEST KS.

DISCUSSION...AT MID-AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
EAST-CENTRAL CO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST KS /NEAR GLD/ INTO
CENTRAL NEB /ROUGHLY NEAR BBW AND ODX/. NEAR/AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...A DEEPENING/TOWERING CU FIELD IS SEEN IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A FEW INCIPIENT TSTMS ALREADY NOTED ACROSS
EASTERN CO/NORTHWEST KS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS HOT/WELL-MIXED...WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AGGRESSIVELY CLIMBING THROUGH THE 90S ALONG
WITH A FEW LOWER 100S F. TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/MATURE...WITH A NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF TOWERING CU/TSTMS
PROBABLE INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
ADDITIONAL HEATING OCCURS. ADDITIONALLY...A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR BY EARLY EVENING...ADDITIONAL STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF EASTERN CO OWING
TO AN INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES WITHIN THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

OVERALL...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /DEEP LAYER GENERALLY 30 KT OR LESS/
AND ADEQUATE CAPE/DCAPE WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
DOWNBURSTS/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE...ASIDE FROM SEVERE HAIL. A WATCH
COULD BE NEEDED...PERHAPS ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL NEB...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT.

..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39430471 39870396 39410262 39700153 41439907 41609776
40179832 38220186 38200324 39430471

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