MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1080

ACUS11 KWNS 142010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142010
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-142215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA TO FAR NORTHWEST MO/FAR
NORTHEAST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 142010Z - 142215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SURFACE BASED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA AND FAR NORTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST KS. THIS
INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EVOLVING
AS WELL THIS EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ROUGHLY NNW TO SSE ACROSS EASTERN
NEB INTO NORTHEAST KS/WEST-CENTRAL MO...WITH PERSISTENT ELEVATED
CONVECTION /TO ITS NORTHEAST/ ACROSS IA AND NORTHEAST MO CONTINUING
TO REINFORCE A SURFACE COLD POOL/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. INFLUENCE OF
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING PREVALENT CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW UNDER
THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH. THE
MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIAL SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NEB...WHERE MASS
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT/WARM
FRONT INTERSECTION...WITH STRONG HEATING/DEEPER MIXING IMPINGING ON
THE WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

GIVEN NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR THE WARM FRONT...ADDITIONAL
HEATING WILL LIKELY BOOST MLCAPE TO AS HIGH AS 3500-4000 J/KG AS
BOUNDARY LAYER CINH OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO ERODE. STRONG INSTABILITY
ASIDE...STRONG DEEP LAYER/L0W-LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET NOCTURNALLY INCREASES/IMPINGES ON
THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING...UPSCALE/QUASI-LINEAR DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING/SOUTHEAST-MOVING MCS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IA INTO FAR NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO. THIS
NOTION IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 12Z
WRF-NMM/12Z WRF-NSSL.

..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 41289812 42409798 42589662 41589493 40199444 39659579
40789700 41289812

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