MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1081

ACUS11 KWNS 142014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142014
LAZ000-TXZ000-142145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...FAR SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 142014Z - 142145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SRN LA
AND FAR SERN TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IF STORMS OCCUR...BUT THE THREAT IS TOO MARGINAL
FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...AT 20Z...A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED WWD FROM THE
FL/GA BORDER INTO CNTRL LA AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT AS
IT CURVES TO THE NW INTO OK. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVING INLAND OVER FAR SRN LA AND SERN
TX. THE SURFACE AIRMASS BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES IS HOT AND VERY
MOIST...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE IS
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CINH AND LARGE CAPE...ISOLATED
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OR ALONG
AND S OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. IF THIS TAKES PLACE...A FEW INSTANCES OF DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 06/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29119086 29539236 29719314 29689385 29869435 30379439
30829375 30899297 30219024 29708938 29149002 29119086

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