MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1089

ACUS11 KWNS 151737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151737
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-151930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST/NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151737Z - 151930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AT LEAST EPISODIC BOUTS OF
DOWNBURSTS/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE...ASIDE FROM THE
POTENTIAL FOR PULSE-TYPE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST/NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO.

DISCUSSION...IN THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT/SLOW-MOVING SUBTROPICAL
UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE/QUASI-ORGANIZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
OK IN AREAS TO THE EAST OF I-35. THIS APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH A
CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW...WITH A WARM AND VERY MOIST /LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AIRMASS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN OK INTO EASTERN
KS/WESTERN MO. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IS NOT
STRONG...AS MUCH AS 25-30 KT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AND MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED PROPAGATION/QUASI-ORGANIZATION AND
GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE
MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS. MLCAPE MAY BE AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST OK/EASTERN KS INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST MO. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND LOCALLY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL ACCOUNT FOR
DOWNBURST/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MIGHT BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. OF NOTE...A 53 KT WIND GUST
WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT KSWO/STILLWATER OK.

..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 06/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35429732 36989704 38519598 38699438 38309302 37569275
36669314 36389453 35689597 35429732

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