MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1098

ACUS11 KWNS 162057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162056
TXZ000-OKZ000-162300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 162056Z - 162300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...AT LEAST ON A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED
BASIS...MAY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WATCH
IS NOT IMMINENT/CERTAIN IN THE SHORT-TERM...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...A FEW TOWERING CU ARE NOTED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/EASTERN OK PANHANDLE...INCLUDING AN
INCIPIENT TSTM IN POTTER COUNTY TX. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IN
THE WAKE OF A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING INTO WESTERN OK...WITH
A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLE IN ITS WAKE. REGARDLESS...ASIDE FROM
STRONG HEATING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE MODESTLY INCREASING IN
VICINITY OF A HIGH PLAINS SURFACE LOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLES...AND IN VICINITY OF AN ARCING REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/CORRIDOR OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
TX PANHANDLE INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR IS NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY
CAPPED WITH 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE...THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF A SEVERE
THREAT IS NOT CERTAIN IN THE SHORT-TERM. PENDING INCREASING SURFACE
BASED DEVELOPMENT...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND...IN ADDITION TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN UPSTREAM MCS AT LEAST GRAZING PARTS OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH.

..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 06/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35370202 36770219 36800041 35560003 34530040 35370202

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